Explain my results¶

Your results are provided as an Excel workbook. The cover sheet explains what you can find in each sheet.

The results are contained in the estimated_capacity_needs sheet of the results workbook. Each row represents a different type of resource.

Understanding the estimates¶

The OpenPlan demand model is probabilistic, which means it produces a range of possible activity estimates rather than a single value. We convert each of these into an estimate of the capacity required.

We summarise these capacity estimates using three values:

Mean - the average capacity requirement across all the estimates generated by the model. P10 - 10% of the modelled capacity estimates are below this value. P90 - 90% of the modelled capacity estimates are below this value.

Together, P10 and P90 describe the middle 80% of the capacity estimates generated by the model.

For more information on uncertainty use in the OpenPlan demand model, see the explanation here.

Example¶

Suppose your results for adult elective surgical beds are:

You could interpret this as

The model estimates an average need of 30 adult elective surgical beds. Across all the estimates generated by the model, 80% fall between 28 and 32 beds.

The range reflects uncertainty in the modelled demand and shows how this translates into variation in the resulting capacity estimates.

Here you can download an example results workbook.