Explain my results¶

Results are delivered as an Excel workbook. The cover sheet explains the contents of each sheet in the workbook.

The results are contained in the estimated_capacity_needs sheet of the results workbook.

In this sheet, each row describes a type of resource.

Because the demand model is probabilistic it generates a range of plausible activity predictions, each of which we convert into capacity estimates. This results in many different plausible capacity estimates which we summarise for you into a mean (the average value for that resource across all the estimates) and a prediction interval (via a p10 and a p90) which describes the range of capacity values that contain 80% of capacity estimates generated.

For more information on uncertainty, see the explanation here.

Let's say for surgical beds you get the following results

You can interpret this as

On average, we'd expect to need about 30 adult surgical beds. Most of the time (8 days out of 10), that need would fall somewhere between 23 and 32 beds.

To see an example results workbook, click here.